Tesla Inc. will likely release its second-quarter delivery numbers by Tuesday, July 3, Baird analysts said Thursday, and they are buyers into the release. Baird rates Tesla stock outperform and has designated it a fresh pick, meaning it deems the stock a high-conviction investment based on fundamental or quantitative factors until a specified expiration date. “The primary focus will likely be on exit rate Model 3 production, and we believe shares could trade higher if the company approaches its targets,” analysts led by Ben Kallo wrote in a note. “Additionally, we believe investors will look for total Model 3s produced in June (if the company releases June data) in an effort to gauge steady-state production rates.” Baird is expecting deliveries of about 25,000 vehicles with more in the channel, although the focus will be more on production than delivery. The FactSet consensus is for 28,000 Model 3 deliveries, out of 51,000 vehicles in total. “Consensus estimates for Q2 deliveries may be too high, particularly given our belief there could be a larger-than-normal delta between production and deliveries due to the ramp during the quarter,” said Kallo. “That said, Elon Musk’s recent email could indicate the company is tracking ahead of consensus expectations.” Tesla shares were up 3.2% on Thursday, and have gained 14% in 2018, while the S&P 500 has gained 1.2%.