Despite having lost two straight, there’s no way Miami should be getting more than a field goal at home against the Bears this week. Where else can you find strong values among Week 6’s Sunday afternoon schedule?
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Arizona Cardinals (-10) at Minnesota Vikings
1:00 p.m. ET
• Minnesota is 13-5-1 against the spread under head coach Mike Zimmer when facing a team with a losing record.
• Under the total is 7-3 in games Minnesota has played against NFC West opponents since the start of the 2014 season.
• Don’t expect the Vikings to get caught off guard like they did at home against Buffalo last month.
Side: Vikings (-10)
Confidence Level: Moderate (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)
Total: Under 43
Confidence Level: High
Los Angeles Chargers (PK) at Cleveland Browns
1:00 p.m.
• Cleveland is 0-13 against the spread under coach Hue Jackson vs. defenses allowing a completion percentage of at least 64%.
• Under the total is 9-1 in games the Chargers have played when coming off a straight-up win since the start of last season.
• Road favorites that average at least 255 passing yards per game are 11-1 against the spread since the start of the 2014 season when coming off three straight games in which they averaged 7 or more passing yards per attempt.
Side: Chargers (PK)
Confidence Level: Very High
Total: Under 45.5
Confidence Level: Moderate
Chicago Bears (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins
1:00 p.m.
• Chicago is 5-12-1 against the spread in road games since the start of the 2016 season.
• Over the total is 13-4 in games Miami has played at home since the start of the 2016 season.
• The Dolphins weren’t as good as their 3-0 start, but they’re not as bad as their 0-2 record the past two weeks.
Side: Dolphins (+3.5)
Confidence Level: Extremely High
Total: Over 41.5
Confidence Level: Very High
Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins (-1)
1:00 p.m.
• Washington is 1-8 against the spread vs. defenses allowing a completion percentage of at least 61% since the start of 2017.
• Over the total is 13-2 when Washington has faced teams that average at least 350 yards per game since the start of 2016.
• This is a tough spot for a Redskins team coming off a short week after a Monday night road game.
Side: Panthers (+1)
Confidence Level: High
Total: Over 44.5
Confidence Level: Moderate
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2)
1:00 p.m.
• Indianapolis is 8-2 against the spread when coming off a double-digit loss since the start of the 2016 season.
• Over the total is 7–0 in October games Indianapolis has played on the road since the start of the 2016 season.
• Although wideout T.Y. Hilton remains doubtful to play, the Colts should be at least somewhat more healthy than they were when they visited Foxboro last Thursday.
Side: Colts (+2)
Confidence Level: Low
Total: Over 45.5
Confidence Level: Low
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)
1:00 p.m.
• Pittsburgh is 13–3–2 against the spread in road games played against Cincinnati since the start of the 2002 season.
• Under the total is 11–3 in games Pittsburgh has played on the road against AFC teams since the start of the 2016 season.
• Coming off an impressive Week 5 win, the Steelers face the Bengals in what has been a one-sided rivalry of late.
Side: Steelers (+1.5)
Confidence Level: High
Total: Under 52.5
Confidence Level: Extremely High
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
1:00 p.m.
• Atlanta is 1–8 against the spread under head coach Dan Quinn when coming off back-to-back straight-up losses.
• Under the total is 9–1 in games Atlanta has played following three-straight losses against the spread under head coach Dan Quinn.
• The Buccaneers are 5-1 against the spread over the past six road games they’ve played when coming off a bye week.
Side: Buccaneers (+3)
Confidence Level: Low
Total: Under 57.5
Confidence Level: High
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) vs. Oakland Raiders in London
1:00 p.m.
• Seattle is 11-4-1 against the spread when coming off a home loss under head coach Pete Carroll.
• Over the total is 8–1 in games Seattle has played against AFC opponents since the start of the 2016 season.
• The average margin of victory in last year’s international games was 26.
Side: Seahawks (-2.5)
Confidence Level: Moderate
Total: Over 48
Confidence Level: Extremely High
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10)
1:00 p.m.
• Houston is 1-5-1 against the spread when coming off a win by fewer than seven points since the start of the 2016 season.
• Under the total is 10-5 in games Buffalo has played as a road underdog since the start of the 2016 season.
• Houston has yet to win a game in regulation, and Buffalo has the defense to be able to keep this one close.
Side: Bills (+10)
Confidence Level: Moderate
Total: Under 41
Confidence Level: Low
Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Denver Broncos
4:05 p.m.
• Denver is 0-9 against the spread when facing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards per game since the start of 2017.
• Over the total is 8–2 in games the Rams have played on the road since the start of last season.
• Denver is the only team that ranks among the NFL’s bottom 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense.
Side: Rams (-7)
Confidence Level: Low
Total: Over 51.5
Confidence Level: Moderate
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Dallas Cowboys
4:25 p.m.
• Dallas is 7-17 against the spread at home when coming off a straight-up loss under head coach Jason Garrett.
• Under the total is 14-3 in games Dallas has played against AFC opponents since the start of the 2014 season.
• Jacksonville comes into this one having gone 10-5 against the spread over its past 15 road games.
Side: Jaguars (-3)
Confidence Level: Very High
Total: Under 40.5
Confidence Level: Moderate
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (-3)
4:25 p.m.
• Tennessee is 8–2 against the spread when coming off a straight-up loss since the start of the 2016 season.
• Under the total is 20–6 in games Baltimore has played against AFC South opponents under head coach John Harbaugh.
• Tennessee is 13-3 straight up and 11-4-1 ATS at home over the past two calendar years.
Side: Titans (+3)
Confidence Level: Very High
Total: Under 41.5
Confidence Level: Low
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