Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
Sun., December 9, 4:25 p.m. ET
Three things you need to know before betting on Eagles-Cowboys:
1. Surging NFC East rivals meet in a crucial division matchup on Sunday afternoon in Arlington when the Cowboys host the Eagles. Philadelphia is riding a two-game win streak, taking down the other two NFC East teams with a 25-22 win over the Giants and a 28-13 victory against Washington on Monday night. Dallas comes into this one having won four straight (both straight up and against the spread). While the Eagles went 0-3 against the spread in November prior to Monday night’s win over Washington, the struggles set them up the following betting system: Road teams are 40-15-1 against the spread in December games since the start of 2014 after failing to cover the spread in three of their previous four games.
2. Although the Cowboys are 5-2 against the spread in their past seven games, they may be due for a letdown. Dallas is only 2-11 against the spread under head coach Jason Garrett when covering in five or six of its previous seven contests. The Cowboys are 2-10 against the spread at home under Garrett when coming off a game in which the team scored 14 points or fewer, and they’re 9-26 against the spread at home under Garrett when facing a defense that is allowing a completion rate of at least 61%. Hosting a conference foe doesn’t help Dallas either, as the Cowboys are 19-33 against the spread at home under Garrett when facing an NFC opponent. Dallas comes into this one having gone 3-6 over the past nine times the team has been favored at home by more than three points, which is a span that includes four straight-up losses: 28-14 to Tennessee, 21-12 to Seattle, 35-30 to the Rams, and 34-31 to Green Bay, all of which occurred in the 2017 and 2018 calendar years.
3. The Eagles have won six of their past eight trips to Dallas. While three of Philadelphia’s six wins over that span have been by double digits—37-9 last season, 33-10 in 2014 and 20-7 in 2011—the Cowboys’ two wins in that span have been by fewer than 7 points. The Cowboys have also been unable to slow down Eagles QB Carson Wentz. In his four career starts in this rivalry matchup, Wentz has completed 67% of his passes for 975 yards, seven touchdowns and just one interception. Although Dallas won 27-20 in Philly on Nov. 11, Wentz still carved up the defense for 360 passing yards and two touchdowns.
Pick: Eagles +3.5
Confidence Level: Very High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)